Distressed Inventory Fading Fast as Housing Market Strengthens

By: Esther Cho       

As the housing market heals, foreclosure inventory is depleting quickly, CoreLogic reported Thursday.

In July, about 949,000 homes were in some stage of foreclosure, down 32 percent from 1.4 million a year ago. Foreclosure inventory also showed a 4.4 percent decline from June. Year-to-date, foreclosure inventory is down by 20 percent.
Currently, about 2.4 percent of homes with a mortgage are in foreclosure inventory, the lowest level since March 2009.
In addition to shrinking foreclosure inventory, CoreLogic also reported steep declines in completed foreclosures and serious delinquencies.
According to the data provider’s estimate, about 49,000 properties were lost to foreclosure in July, down 25 percent from 65,000 in July 2012.

From June to July, completed foreclosures fell by 8.6 percent from 53,000 in the prior month.
At 5.4 percent, the serious delinquency rate decreased to the lowest level since December 2008, according to CoreLogic. The rate represents fewer than 2.2 million mortgages.
“Continued strength in the housing market will contribute to our outlook for ongoing improvement in the stock of distressed assets through the end of this year,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic.
According to CoreLogic, the decreases were apparent across the country, with every state reporting an annual decline in foreclosures.
“Not surprisingly, non-judicial states have come the farthest the fastest in reducing shadow inventory and lowering delinquency rates,” noted Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic.
Florida took the lead again as the state with the highest number of completed foreclosures. Over the last 12 months, about 110,000 homes were lost to foreclosure in Florida. California followed with 65,000 completed foreclosures. Other states in the top five were Michigan (61,000), Texas (45,000), and Georgia (41,000).
Florida also held the highest percentage of homes in foreclosure inventory, at 8.1 percent. New Jersey’s foreclosure inventory rate of 5.9 percent put it at second, with New York (4.7 percent), Connecticut (4.0 percent), and Maine (4.0 percent) filling out the top five.
However, in 36 states, foreclosure inventory sits below the national rate of 2.4 percent

   

   

 

July Pending Home Sales in Steepest Drop So Far This Year

08/28/2013 By: Mark Lieberman, Five Star Institute Economist

Responding to higher mortgage rates and higher prices, the National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) slipped 1.3 percent in July—the steepest decline this year—to 109.5, the group reported Wednesday. Economists had expected the index for July would drop to 109.8, which would have been a 1.0 percent decline from June’s 110.9. The June index was unchanged.

The index covered the same month in which new home sales, reported last week by the Census Bureau and HUD, plunged 13.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted sales pace of 394,000, the lowest rate of the year. Like the PHSI, new home sales are tracked when buyers sign contracts. The existing-home sales report, also a product of NAR, is based on closed transactions. Although the group downplays monthly price changes when it reports closings, NAR economist Lawrence Yun cited higher prices as affecting new contracts.

“Higher mortgage interest rates and rising home prices are impacting monthly contract activity in the high-cost regions of the Northeast and the West,” Yun offered as an explanation for the drop in the PHSI. The Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for June, reported Tuesday, rose 2.2 percent to their highest levels in almost five years.

Increasing rates and prices, though, could also serve as a catalyst for contracts and sales as buyers rush to lock in prices or rates before they go higher.

The drop in the July PHSI was the second monthly decline, the first time the index has fallen for two straight months since last November and December. At 109.5, the index is at its lowest level since April. The PHSI is considered an indicator of home sales (closings) reported by the NAR. Existing-home sales rose in July as the PHSI for May increased. Closings fell in June as the index for April fell. With the month-over-month decline, the PHSI is up 6.7 percent over July 2012—the 27th straight month of annual increases, but the weakest 12-month increase since December, when the index was up 6.5 percent year-over-year. New home sales have been up on a yearly basis for 22 straight months and in 25 of the last 27 months.

The index fell in June in three of the four Census regions, improving only in the South to 121.5, up 2.6 percent over June to and 7.7 percent in the last year. The index fell 6.5 percent in the Northeast to 81.5, 3.3 percent higher than July 2012. In the West, the index fell 4.9 percent in July to 108.6, 0.4 percent below July 2012. The index dropped 1.0 percent to 113.2 in the Midwest in July, 14.5 percent higher than last year.

The PHSI, the NAR said, is based on a sample of about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, the base year.

Hear Mark Lieberman Friday on P.O.T.U.S. radio, Sirius-XM 124, at 6:20 a.m. Eastern